The recent opening of Saudi and Iran relations through Chinese intermediary is a significant development that has implications for regional and global politics.
The two rivals agreed to restore diplomatic ties and reopen embassies after seven years of hostility, following a series of talks mediated by China. The deal marks a diplomatic victory for Beijing, which has been expanding its economic and strategic influence in West Asia, while also reducing the chances of armed conflict between Tehran and Riyadh.
China has had diplomatic relations with Iran since 1971 — about two decades longer than it has with Saudi Arabia. China promised Iran in 2021 to invest $400 billion in the country in exchange for supplies of oil and fuel, though Western sanctions against Tehran have prevented Beijing from making good on the deal.
China is also Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner and a major buyer of its oil. By brokering the Saudi-Iran deal, China has demonstrated its convening power and its willingness to play a constructive role in resolving regional disputes.
The Saudi-Iran deal also reflects a shift in the balance of power in West Asia, where the U.S. has long dominated geopolitics. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and its reluctance to rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran have created a vacuum that China has sought to fill.
The U.S. has also been trying to recalibrate its relations with Saudi Arabia under President Joe Biden, who has criticized Riyadh’s human rights record and its role in the Yemen war. The Saudi-Iran deal may be seen as a way for Riyadh to hedge its bets and diversify its foreign policy options.
The deal may also have implications for other regional actors, such as Israel, Turkey, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Israel, which sees Iran as an existential threat, may view the deal with suspicion and concern. Israel may also feel more isolated as some of its Arab allies, such as UAE and Bahrain, have normalized ties with Iran in recent months.
Turkey, which has been competing with Saudi Arabia for regional leadership, may see the deal as an opportunity to improve its own relations with both Tehran and Riyadh.
Qatar, which was blockaded by Saudi Arabia and its allies from 2017 to 2021 over its ties with Iran, may welcome the deal as a sign of reconciliation.
UAE, which has been pursuing an independent foreign policy that often diverges from Saudi Arabia’s interests, may also benefit from the deal as it could reduce tensions and foster cooperation in West Asia.
The Saudi-Iran deal is not without challenges and risks. The two countries still have deep-rooted differences over various issues such as Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Bahrain.
The deal may face opposition from hardliners on both sides who may seek to undermine it or provoke incidents that could derail it.
The deal may also face pressure from external actors such as the U.S., Israel or France who may view it as a threat to their interests or influence in West Asia. The success of the deal will depend on how well it can address these challenges and build trust between Tehran and Riyadh.
In conclusion,
- The opening of Saudi-Iran relations through Chinese intermediary is a significant development that has implications for regional and global politics.
- The deal marks a diplomatic victory for Beijing, which has been expanding its economic and strategic influence in West Asia, while also reducing the chances of armed conflict between Tehran and Riyadh.
- The deal reflects a shift in the balance of power in West Asia, where the U.S. has long dominated geopolitics.
- The deal may have implications for other regional actors, such as Israel, Turkey, Qatar and UAE, who may view it differently depending on their interests and alignments.
- The deal is not without challenges and risks, as there are still deep-rooted differences between Tehran and Riyadh over various issues, as well as potential opposition or pressure from external actors.
Reviewed by InterMedia
on
March 13, 2023
Rating:
